The Future of Online and Blended Learning

At the end of my second-to-last course in the LDT MEd program, we were asked to look forward a decade and predict what online and blended learning will look like in 2033. In order to approach this question, I'd actually like to start by looking back to the previous decade first. 

Simonson, Smaldino, & Zvacek (2015) describe distance education at the time of their writing to be viewed still as an alternative to conventional classroom instruction, with persistent skeptics among faculty and administrators. In order for distance learning to succeed, the authors argue, the institution, faculty, and students must be ready before instructional development should occur. Readiness can proceed at variable speeds across these three groups. For instance, students with disabilities who are unable to physically attend courses may be much more ready and eager for distance learning to be implemented at their institution – but the institution and its faculty may not yet be prepared. On the other hand, take the students at Makerere University in 2022 as an example – the institution and faculty felt very ready to move online, but because they had not yet addressed the needs of the students, the students felt left behind and shut out from their educational experience. 

The needs of the various stakeholders in online and blended learning – to use the triad set forth by Simonson, Smaldino, & Zvacek (2015), the institution, faculty, and learners – must be addressed in order for their readiness to be accelerated. Addressing these needs was and is critical for developing online and blended learning, both now and in the previous decade, and will remain critical in the next decade as well. 

At the institutional level, institutions over the next decade must be prepared for and have the funds available to implement a learning management system framework that is robust, accessible, and user-friendly for both faculty and students alike. Institutions must also be flexible and accommodating for students at all socioeconomic levels. Administrations should be prepared to provide some or all students with subsidized access to software such as word processing tools and VPNs, as well as hardware such as laptop computers. These accommodations require funding that in many cases will need to be supported at the state level, as was the case with Makerere University and the students' need for affordable data. 

At the faculty level, regular onboarding and standards setting will be necessary to accelerate faculty readiness over the next decade. In this course, we spent some time crafting faculty-facing materials, such as a faculty development plan and a social presence plan. In these presentations, we covered elements that are critical for instructors to follow when constructing, facilitating, and maintaining their online or blended course spaces. These elements include the incorporation of active learning and instructional strategies to increase student motivation, improve self-regulation, and elevate students' learning outcomes. Faculty must be ready to embrace a new form of social presence in online and blended learning, and need guidance on how to adapt to the virtual environment given that online interaction does not seamlessly mirror face-to-face interaction.

Finally, at the student level, students should be the recipients of an institution and faculty's efforts to create robust online and blended learning environments – not the victims of their negligence. Student readiness over the next decade will be predicated on the availability and accessibility of the necessary hardware and software (supplemented by the institution), as well as the quality and consistency of online course structures (created by faculty). Flexible degree programs and reliable internet connections are also critical in order for the widest range possible of students to be included in the educational experience. 

So what do these readiness requirements imply for online and blended learning in the next decade? In order for distance education to become solidified in society as a viable and respectable option for learning, many infrastructure shifts at the institutional level must occur, preferably with the support of state or federal funding. While access to mobile devices and internet connectivity has continued to grow throughout the 21st century, securing funding for institutional-level accommodations across all socioeconomic groups may prove difficult over the next ten years, if public education remains underfunded. Unfortunately, without a resolute shift in policy and public opinion regarding public education, it is likely access to quality online and blended learning in the next decade will become severely stratified. 

One element that will play a role in this stratification, for better and for worse, is emergent technology. The most affluent students will likely see the integration of emergent technologies such as generative AI and extended reality into their online and blended courses, as a supplement to their learning experience. The successful integration of such technology will be facilitated by student access to high-speed internet and up-to-date hardware such as VR headsets or high quality laptops. On the other end, less affluent students could see generative AI used instead as a cost-saving measure to replace human instructor presence. These students may also have to rely on slower internet connections and dilapidated hardware if their institutions cannot subsidize these materials, likely shutting them out of experiences equitable to their more affluent peers. 

As online and blended learning proliferates, with or without a significant increase in quality, more individuals than ever before will have access to these learning experiences over the next decade. However, the related degrees or credentialing earned will decrease in value due to the oversaturation of qualified candidates in the job market. As education attainment becomes more accessible, higher education degrees become more expected of job candidates. Society has already seen this value decrease manifest in the past decades with the high school degree, and then with the bachelor's degree. 

Online and blended learning is thus a double-edged sword. The increase in online and blended learning opportunities over the past decade and on into the next, when coupled with rapidly accelerating emergent technologies that can be leveraged to automate the virtual learning experience, may elevate the accessibility of education for all while at the same time contributing to the economic decline in value of education attainment.

References

Simonson, M., Smaldino, S., & Zvacek, S. M. (2015). Teaching and learning at a distance: Foundations of distance education (6th ed.). Information Age Publishing, Inc.